RLCS GLICKO

Prediction Accuracy

Overall Prediction Rate: ~81%

LAN Prediction Rate: ~78%

Overview

RLCS Glicko is designed with one goal in mind: predicting RLCS matches as accurately as possible.

At its core, the system combines an Elo-style team rating model with statistically derived player ratings to estimate team strength and predict match outcomes. Ratings are continuously updated based on performance, with an emphasis on both consistency and recent form.

Team Ratings

Initial team ratings are generated directly from player ratings. From there, ratings adjust after every match based on wins and losses using the Glicko rating system .

Not all matches are weighted equally. International LAN events carry the highest importance, while online matches — particularly non-elimination matches — have lower weighting.

Player Ratings

Player ratings are calculated at the conclusion of every event using a combination of individual performance metrics and team success.

Unlike team ratings, player ratings are intended to estimate a player's underlying ability over a longer period of time while still placing greater emphasis on recent performances.

Match importance also affects player ratings. LAN performances are weighted more heavily than online matches, while elimination matches carry more significance than lower-stakes series. These ratings are designed to best estimate player quality and improve prediction accuracy for newly formed teams.